Posted in: Gas Prices,
by Patrick DeHaan on Jul 18, 2011 11:26 AM
Another week, another gasoline price forecast. Last week, I forecasted that gasoline prices in the U.S. would rise to an average of $3.70 by today. Currently, the average stands at $3.67, so thankfully, the increase wasn't as bad as expected. I forecasted prices in Canada to rise to 125.4c/L, but they rose to 125.5c/L, slightly higher than expected.
This week there is additional uncertainty on the horizon as we started the morning off with some concern about debt problems floating around more of Europe. There are concerns Italy and Spain may now be on the brink of a similar situation to that of Greece. Such news is causing concern on the market, concern that it could slow recovery and result in a drop in demand for petroleum. With that news, oil is down slightly while gasoline futures are down a few cents per gallon as well.
While I believe much of the U.S. will see continued increases in gasoline prices, Canada has likely already seen a majority of the increase. This situation that we're currently seeing makes forecasting a bit more difficult as we see rising retail prices, but we may see falling wholesale prices. Not to mention that today is only the first trading day in the week and much can change.
I think while wholesale prices of gasoline may drop later in the week, retail prices, the price you and I pay at the pump, will likely rise in two-thirds of the United States, an average of 2-5 cents per gallon. In Canada, I'll say about half of stations will rise between 1-3c/L.
That means by next Monday, the U.S. national average may rise to $3.71, while the average price in Canada may rise to 126.5c/L. Tropical Storm Bret also has developed, but is expected to veer away from land. We'll continue to watch such developments.