Evaluating last week's prediction for this week, I said "By next Monday, I forecast that the U.S. average will rise to $3.59/gal, while prices in Canada will rise to an average 122.8c/L." So, what was the outcome? Looking at our latest GasBuddy pricing data, we show the U.S. average at $3.566. In Canada, prices rose to 123.1c/L, so we'll call this a very close prediction.

To start this week, oil prices are trading slightly lower to $104.50, a small drop from last Friday's close of nearly $106/bbl. Has anyone else noticed that oil has failed to break through the $106/bbl level? Brent crude also hasn't broken through $117/bbl. If oil fails to break through this barrier, we could see a new ceiling develop or perhaps a small correction in prices.

It is appearing more and more likely that the national average will not make $4/gallon by Memorial Day. While this is good news for motorists, I must remind folks that world events can certainly change that possibility in an instant.

For now, Libya seems set on resuming crude production as the rebels make key advances. It almost seems like the situation is moving closer to resolve. Meanwhile, the Japanese oil industry has restarted some of its facilities, easing the need for imports to begin reconstructing that country.

By next Monday, I expect the U.S. national average to rise to $3.585 while prices in Canada rise to 124.7c/L. Spring break is around the corner for many, so keep an eye on the blog for further developments this week!