Everybody’s asking… ‘How low can they go?’
“While past performance is never an absolute indicator of future price positions, a review of recent history gives us good reason to expect prices to fall between now and Halloween, by between 20-to-25 cents per gallon,” says Patrick DeHaan, senior petroleum analyst, GasBuddy.
“When we looked at prices from 9/19 through Oct. 31 --for a five-year period-- it became clear that the numbers were skewed because of the extraordinary plunge gas prices took in 2008 when they moved from the record peak ($4.12) in July to the record low ($1.61) by year’s end. In 2008 the price from Sept. 19 to Oct. 31 plummeted by $1.28 per gallon. We’re expecting a much tamer decrease this year,” he said.
From Sept 19 to Halloween, the U.S. average price has fallen by an average of 28 cents per gallon over the past five years. “But we’re leaning closer to the 10-year average, which is 23 cents per gallon,” DeHaan noted.
“Retail gas prices during this period actually increased in 4 of the past 10 years, but barring a hurricane or sudden turbulence in the Middle East, we’re confident that most metro markets across the U.S. will see their prices fall in this 20-to-25 cent range,” said Gregg Laskoski, another GasBuddy senior petroleum analyst.