Posted in: Gas Prices,
by Patrick DeHaan on Nov 12, 2012 10:17 AM
The national average has come down a long way in the last month, but the good news may end there: it's likely that the decreases begin fizzling, and in some areas, increases may be on the horizon.
Since October 12, one month ago, the national average has shed 33c/gal, falling today to an average of $3.46, just two cents away from where it was a year ago. Last year, however, the national average continued decreasing until Christmas, when it bottomed out at $3.231/gal. For that to happen this year, prices would need to shed another 23c/gal, something that just at this point doesn't seem so feasible anymore.
While I had forecast that the national average could drop to $3.35/gal by Thanksgiving, I'm beginning to wonder if it'll get there. The bearish rally appears to have dissipated, at least for the time being, leading me to believe we're- at least temporarily- close to bottoming out for the short term.
Wholesale gasoline prices have increased for a few trading sessions, and coupled with wholesale price increases in the NYC/NJ region, other areas may start to see prices rise as well. It appears ripe for a price hike once this week for Great Lakes states, which are typically ahead of the game when it comes to movements up and down.
I'll hold on to my $3.35/gal prediction by Thanksgiving, but it's not going to be as easy getting there as it might have been when I said it a few weeks ago. Things won't be getting much better than that figure, either. So if you're holding out hope for a $2.99 national average, you might be waiting a while.