The economy may not be as weak as it was in 2008 at this time of year, but the rise in crude oil that we've seen this month is nearly as inexplicable as what occurred four years ago.

We were headed into a global recession. The U.S. financial system collapsed. The stock market crashed as the Dow Jones and Standard & Poors respectively lost 34 percent and 38 percent of their value.

Crude oil's NYMEX closing price on Dec. 31, 2007, $95.98 per barrel, was on a steady climb. And gasoline on that date was at the highest retail price average that the U.S. had seen, to date.

Against a rapidly declining U.S. dollar, speculators and hedge funds from Morgan Stanley and Goldman, Sachs pumped extraordinary investment money into crude oil pushing it to record highs.

The similarity to today is eery. December 2011 gasoline prices were the highest retail prices ever recorded at this time of year.
And just like 2008, despite sluggish U.S. demand, the prices creep higher.

By March 7, 2008, crude oil had reached $105 per barrel and by April 25, crude was up to $118.52 per barrel. By July, crude oil had peaked at $147 per barrel. And that prompted presidential candidates of every stripe to issue populist rhetoric deploring 'Big Oil' and the evil speculators. They even promised to reign in the commodities speculation with "common sense regulation."

While the frenzy of commodity speculation is muted today due to the dollar's stronger position against a severely weakened Euro, the rise of crude oil may parallel 2008 and even surpass it, if market analysts are accurate in predicting record highs.

Could turmoil in the Middle East be the catalyst this time, pushing record record highs for crude oil and gasoline? And will the politicians seeking your vote promise to bring common sense back to fuel prices?

We can bet on it. But this time, it may be more difficult to blame 'Big Oil' or even the Wall Street speculators if the premium oil prices are being pushed by Iran with tacit approval from OPEC.