Posted in: Default,
by Patrick DeHaan on Sep 29, 2009 04:03 PM
I've put together some numbers on demand for certain products so it's easy to see how much of a challenge there is for oil prices to rise.
Comparing last week to the same week in 2008,
Oil inventories were up 15% to 335.6 million barrels.
Gasoline inventories were up 16% to 213.1 million barrels.
ULSD (Diesel) inventories were up 42% to 100.4 million barrels.
Jet fuel inventories were up 24% to 46.2 million barrels.
SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) inventories were up 3% to 725.1 million barrels.
Oil imports were 10% higher than the same week in 2008.
Looking now at peak gasoline demand over the last nine years- listed is the week gasoline demand peaked, and the number of barrels used in that week.
Peak demand in 2000 occurred the week of 6/16 with an average 8.81 million barrels of gasoline consumed per day that week.
Peak demand in 2001 occurred the week of 8/3 with an average 9.06 million barrels of gasoline consumed per day that week.
Peak demand in 2002 occurred the week of 8/9 with an average 9.18 million barrels of gasoline consumed per day that week.
Peak demand in 2003 occurred the week of 8/29 with an average 9.43 million barrels of gasoline consumed per day that week.
Peak demand in 2004 occurred the week of 8/27 with an average 9.42 million barrels of gasoline consumed per day that week.
Peak demand in 2005 occurred the week of 7/22 with an average of 9.49 million barrels of gasoline consumed per day that week.
Peak demand in 2006 occurred the week of 6/6 with an average of 9.62 million barrels of gasoline consumed per day that week.
Peak demand in 2007 occurred the week of 7/27 with an average of 9.68 million barrels of gasoline consumed per day that week.
Peak demand in 2008 occurred the week of 8/15 with an average of 9.45 million barrels of gasoline consumed per day that week.
It is forecast that peak demand for 2009 occurred the week of 6/12 with an average of 9.26 million barrels of gasoline consumed per day that week.
No week in 2009 with the exception of the first week in January saw total demand for all oil products over 20 million barrels per day. The last time we had a year that was similar in that regard was 1999.
As you can see, there is a significant amount of pressure for oil prices to decline as a result of decreasing demand and higher than average inventories of nearly every refined product. The profit for refining a barrel of oil into gasoline and other products is currently $2-$3 per barrel. With the margin so low, it is hardly economical for refineries to refine oil. While beneficial to consumers, don't expect inventory levels to remain this high in years to come. You can easily see what damage a recession and higher prices have played into the demand picture from the data above.
Statistics currently show odds to be in favor of falling prices for some time to come but as we all know, that can change quickly.