Posted in: Commentary,
by Patrick DeHaan on Jan 8, 2010 01:31 PM
Looking back at crude oil prices, one doesn't need to go very far to see that crude prices just three weeks ago were nearly $69, so what happened between then and now?
For one, cold weather has been rampant and is likely the main reason why prices have begun to swing higher. Last year, crude prices also started off the New Year higher, as well as gasoline prices. The other significant reason seems to be the amount of foreign money being poured into oil as of late.
While the dollar has strengthened against some benchmark currencies, there is still time for investors to hop on the bandwagon before the dollar steams higher. The dollar has rebounded from lows against the yen and is trading much higher after Japan said they would aggressively attempt to devalue it so that Japan's goods will be more attractive on the global marketplace.
The dollar has only strengthened marginally against the euro, coming back from 1.50USD/EUR to 1.43USD/EUR. While this is a good sign for fundamentals, it also points to a growing U.S. economy, which many believe will increase oil and gasoline demand, bolstering prices.
Bottom line is that we're on a course to hit $85 oil soon if the cold weather doesn't give in, and I think we'll easily see $3 a gallon before we find out if Punxsutawney Phil will see his shadow. Hopefully the time spent north of $3/gal will be short but one can only hope. The typical rally in Spring is strong to the upside and starting 2010 out at $2.60/gal nationwide wasn't the greatest.