What a year it has been. Since seeing gasoline prices collapse last fall, prices have risen some to nearly 41% higher than they were a year ago, and I have to say, the economy isn't looking much healthier, so what happens now?



Looking at data, I believe that between Thanksgiving and Christmas, prices are likely to rise. The state of the economy here is improving, albeit slowly, and that means that our appetite for motor fuels will increase. While I don't foresee any shocks at the pump between now and Christmas, I do think we'll see fluctuating prices, but we will see prices slowly move higher.

We're also seeing an increase in geopolitical tensions as Iran began war games this week, pushing up concern about a rash move from the oil producing country. Also helping boost prices is the perception that with additional refineries closing, capacity will drop, adding more risk into the market if demand moves up in the coming months.

While there are many factors limiting how high gas prices will climb, things are shifting towards the upside. One of the largest reasons prices are tempered is because oil and gasoline inventories are quite high for this time of year. Add in higher seasonal demand, closing refineries, geopolitical tensions, and there are more reasons for prices to climb in the coming months.

The week of Christmas I believe we'll see prices average prices between $2.62-$2.75. The Gulf and the Midwest will remain under the national average, while the West Coast and Northeast remain above average.

Happy Thanksgiving to those in the United States, safe travels to you all!